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Objective To analyze the mortality rate and probability of premature death caused by four major noninfectious chronic diseases (NCDs)in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021, and to provide data support for scientific formulation of chronic disease prevention and control strategy. Methods The mortality data of major chronic diseases in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed. The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and premature death probability were calculated. The annual percent change (APC) was adopted to analyze the temporal trend of mortality and probability of premature death. Results The average annual crude mortality of four major NCDs was 538.98/100,000, and the age-standardized mortality was 387.3/100,000. The crude mortality rate increased from 517.37/100 000 in 2013 to 563.13/100 000 in 2021 (APC=0.89％, P=0.01). The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 410.19/100,000 to 364.92/100,000 (APC=-1.8％, P=0.01). The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of four major NCDs in males were higher than those in females (P<0.05). The average annual probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs was 13.37%. The probability of premature death decreased from 14.49％ in 2013 to 12.32％ in 2021（APC=-2.1％, P=0.00）. From 2013 to 2021, the probability of premature death from malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases in Linyi City dropped from 6.14%, 7.47%, and 1.21% to 5.52%, 6.46%, and 0.5%, respectively (APCs were -1.2%, -2.1%, and -11.3%, respectively, and P values were 0.04, 0.00, and 0.00, respectively). The probability of premature death from diabetes remained stable. The probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs in males was higher than that in females (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death of the four major NCDs in Linyi has showed a downward trend during 2013-2021. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of diabetes in the next step.
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Introduction: COVID-19 patients have been reported to have systemic complications. Analyzing its effect on the endocrine system is essential to ensure women’s reproductive health. Aim: This study aimed to determine the effect of COVID-19 disease on menstruation. Methods: It was a hospital-based cross-sectional study conducted from October 2021 to April 2022, using a validated questionnaire to collect the data. The study included females (15 to 49 years) who had confirmed COVID infection. Results: A total of 132 females participated in the study. For 29 (22%) patients presenting with menstrual cycle changes, most common change was prolonged cycle (14%). An increase in menstrual volume was reported by 12%, where as 35% of patients experienced more pain during menstruation. Menstrual irregularities were significantly higher in severe infection (p-value 0.04). Conclusion: There were transient changes in menstruation in COVID-19-infected patients, with a higher probability of menstruation abnormalities among severely infected patients.
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Objective@#To investigate the mortality of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases and trends in probability of premature mortality due to these four chronic diseases in Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for perfecting the chronic disease control strategy. @*Methods@#The mortality of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases among household registered residents in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021 were collected from the Guangdong Provincial Population Death Information Registration Management System, and the crude mortality, standardized mortality by the population of the Fifth National Population Census in China in 2000 and probability of premature mortality were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature mortality were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and whether achieving the targets for the probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in 2025 and 2030 were evaluated.@*Results@#A total of 226 012 deaths occurred due to four chronic diseases in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021, and the overall crude mortality and standardized mortality rates were 569.22/105 and 283.29/105, with a reduction in the probability of premature mortality from 15.04% to 12.05% (AAPC=-2.403%, Z=-7.603, P<0.001). The probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases decreased from 19.21% to 16.38% in males, and from 10.42% to 7.58% in females (AAPC=-1.893% and -3.085%, Z=-5.262 and -9.811, both P<0.001). The probability of premature mortality due to diabetes appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=2.317%, Z=2.548, P=0.034), and the probability of premature mortality due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.826%, Z=-13.590, P<0.001), while no significant changing trend was seen in the probability of premature mortality due to malignant tumors or chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-0.751% and -2.461%, Z=-1.532 and -1.730, P=0.125 and 0.122). The predicted probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases was 10.92% in 2025 and 9.66% in 2030 in Jiangmen City, which were both lower than the target (11.21% and 9.81%). @*Conclusions@#The probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021, which can reach the target in 2025 and 2030. Males should be given a high priority for interventions of chronic diseases, and diabetes control should be reinforced.
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【Objective】 To evaluate the significance of Mayo adhesive probability (MAP) in predicting surgical difficulty and postoperative recovery in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) undergoing laparoscopic radical nephrectomy (LRN). 【Methods】 The clinical data of 168 RCC patients who received transabdominal LRN during Jan.2017 and Dec.2020 were retrospectively analyzed. According to MAP, the patients were divided into low MAP group (n=100) and high MAP group (n=68). The differences in perioperative clinical data were compared between the two groups. 【Results】 Compared with low MAP group, the high MAP group had longer operation time (P<0.001), more intraoperative blood loss (P<0.001), higher Clavien-Dindo grade complications (P=0.008), longer hospital stay (P=0.003), higher levels of c-reactive protein (P=0.030) and IL-6 (P=0.009), lower levels of albumin (P<0.001) and prealbumin (P=0.020). 【Conclusion】 MAP can assess the risk of prolonged operation time, increased bleeding during transabdominal LRN, and postoperative recovery, thus guiding the preoperative planning.
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Background Subways are typical congregate settings and may facilitate aerosol transmission of viruses. However, quantified transmission probability estimates are lacking. Purpose To model spread and diffusion of respiratory aerosols in subways by simulation and calculation of infection probabilities. Methods The internal environment of carriages of Shanghai Metro Line 10 was used to establish a study scene. The movement of tiny particles was simulated using the turbulent model. Trend analysis of infection probabilities and viral quantum doses was conducted in a closed subway carriage scene by a quantum emission-infection probability model. Results Under a typical twelve-vent air conditioning configuration, respiratory droplet aerosols within a subway carriage dispersed rapidly throughout various regions due to airflow, with limited short-term diffusion to other carriages. Concurrently, owing to the uncertainty of airflow patterns, the airflow might circulate and converge within carriages, causing delayed outward dispersion or hindered dispersion of droplet aerosols upon entry into these zones. Passengers boarding the carriage could exacerbate the formation of these zones. When the air conditioning system functioned adequately (air exchange rate=23.21 h−1), the probability of a virus carrier transmitting the virus to other passengers within the same carriage via aerosol transmission was approximately 3.8%. However, in the event of air conditioning system failure (air exchange rate=0.5 h−1), this probability escalated dramatically to 30%. Furthermore, a super-spreader (with virus spreading exceeding 90% of the average) elevated the infection probability to 14.9%. Additionally, due to the complexity of turbulence within the carriage, if local diffusion occurred in 1/2 zones of a carriage, the anticipated infection probability would increase to 8.9%, or during the morning or evening rush hours leading to elevated aerosol concentrations, the infection probability would rise to 4.7%. The subway transmission probability for common coronaviruses diminished to as low as 0.9%. Conclusion Combined computational fluid dynamics and infection probability analysis reveals that in the prevalent twelve-vent air conditioning configurations, despite being a major transportation hub with substantial spatial-temporal overlap, the internal space of subway carriages exhibits a certain level of resistance to virus aerosol transmission owing to built-in ventilation capabilities. However, turbulence and passenger positioning may lead to localized hovering of droplet aerosols, thereby increase the risk of virus transmission. Furthermore, super-spreaders, poor operational status of built-in air conditioning system, and high passenger volume at morning or evening peak hours exert profound effects on virus transmission and infection probability.
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ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and safety of treating mediate-risk pure ground glass pulmonary nodules （pGGNs） based on the state theory. MethodsA prospective clinical randomized controlled trial was used. Totally 141 cases of mediate-risk pGGNs were divided into treatment group （92 cases） and control group （49 cases） according to the random table method. The treatment group was given the basic Sanjie Formula （基础散结方） orally with modification according to the identification of traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） state， 1 dose per day， 3 months as a course of treatment.Three months after the treatment patients were checked by CT. Patients who were clinically judged as cure， moderate to low risk， and turned to surgical resection do not carry out a second course of treatment，and the rest of the patients continued to complete the second courses. Patients in the control group did not receive any treatment and were only followed up periodically. Patients in both groups received a CT review 3 months and 6 months after enrolled. Comprehensive curative effect was evaluated according to the reduction rate of the area of pulmonary nodules shown in chest CT， to further explore the clinical effective difference for patients at different TCM state； the risk of malignancy index （Mayo score） was calculated by Mayo model at enrollment and 3 months and 6 months after enrolled. Adverse events were monitored continuously during the study. ResultsDuring the follow-up， 8 cases in the treatment group and 7 cases in the control group were lost. A total of 126 cases completed the whole process， including 84 cases in the treatment group and 42 cases in the control group. The total effective rates at 3 months and 6 months of the treatment group were 46.15% （30/65） and 45.71% （32/70） in the treatment group， while the total effective rates at 3 months and 6 months in the control group were 12.5% （4/32） and 10.00% （4/40）. Compared with the control group， the comprehensive curative effect of 3 months and 6 months of enrollment in treatment group was significantly better than that in corresponding control group （P＜0.01）. The pulmonary nodule area and Mayo score in the treatment group decreased after 3 and 6 months of enrollment （P＜0.01）. In contrast， there was no statistically significant difference in nodule area between pre- and post-enrollment time points in the control group （P＞0.05）， and probability of Mayo risk increased in the control group after 6 months of enrollment compared to pre-enrollment （P＜0.05）. Among the 84 patients in the treatment group， there were 15 cases of qi deficiency state， 7 cases of yin deficiency state， 5 cases of yang deficiency state， 20 cases of qi depression state， 32 cases of damp-heat state， and 5 cases of harmonious state； the difference in the distribution of the total clinical effective rate of the patients with different TCM states after treatment was statistically significant （P＜0.05）， and the total effective rate of two-by-two comparison of qi depression state was higher （13/20，65.00%） than that of the total effective rate of damp-heat state （8/32，25.00%， P＜0.00833）. There were no significant changes in blood routine， urine routine， liver function and kidney function in both groups， and no adverse events occurred. ConclusionTreating mediate-risk pGGNs based on the state theory can effectively reduce the area of pulmonary nodules and inhibit the growth of malignant risk of pulmonary nodules.
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Objective:To compare dosimetric and radiobiological parameters between automatic and manual uARC plans in the treatment of esophageal cancer patients, aiming to provide reference for clinical application.Methods:High-quality uARC plans of 100 patients with esophageal cancer were selected, and the mean values of the dosimetric parameters in the target area and organs at risk (OAR) were counted, and the goal table of uRT-TPOIS intelligent plan was established. Automatic and manual uARC plans were generated with UIH (United Imaging) treatment planning system (TPS) for 21 esophageal cancer patients. The differences in mean dose (D mean), approximate minimum (D 98%) and maximum (D 2%) dose of planning target volume (PTV), homogeneity index (HI) and conformity index (CI), dose of OAR, mean planning time, monitor unit (MU), tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were compared between automatic and manual uARC plans. Normally distributed data between two groups were compared by paired t-test, and non-normally distributed data were assessed by nonparametric Wilcoxon test. Results:The D 98% (PTV 60 Gy: P<0.001, PTV 54 Gy: P=0.001) , CI (PTV 60 Gy: P<0.001, PTV 54 Gy: P=0.002) and target volume of area covered by prescription dose (V 54 Gy: P<0.001) of the automatic uARC plans were better than those of manual uARC plans (all P<0.05). There was no significant difference in D mean or HI between the two plans [PTV 54 Gy (59.32±1.87) Gy vs. (59.13±1.64) Gy, (0.19±0.02) vs. (0.18±0.02), all P>0.05]. The D mean and D max of spinal cord of the automatic plan were better than those of the manual plan [(13.22±4.27) Gy vs. (13.75±4.44) Gy, P=0.020 and (36.99±1.67) Gy vs. (38.14±1.31) Gy, P=0.011]. There was no significant difference in the mean dose of V 20 Gy of the lung between two plans ( P>0.05), whereas the mean doses of V 5 Gy and V 10 Gy of the lung of the manual plan were less than those of the automatic plan ( both P<0. 001). Automatic uARC plan had a significantly shorter mean planning time than manual uARC plan [(11.79±1.71) min vs. (53.36±8.23) min, P<0.001]. MU did not significantly differ between two plans [(762.84±74.83) MU vs. (767.41±80.63) MU, P>0.05]. The TCP of the automatic plan was higher than that of the manual plan (PTV 60 Gy 89.15%±0.49% vs. 86.75%±6.46%, P=0.004 and PTV 54 Gy 79.79%±3.48% vs. 77.51%±5.04%, P=0.006). However, manual plan had a lower NTCP of the lung than automatic uARC plan (0.46%±0.40% vs. 0.35%±0.32%, P<0.001). There was no significant difference in NTCP of heart and spinal cord between two plans (all P>0.05). Conclusion:It is feasible to generate automatic uARC plan with uRT-TPOIS TPS for esophageal cancer patients, which can increase the target CI and shorten the plan design time.
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Objective:To provide a basis for selecting the optimization method for intracavitary/interstitial brachytherapy (IC/ISBT) of cervical cancer by comparing graphical optimization (GO), inverse planning simulated annealing (IPSA), and hybrid inverse planning optimization (HIPO) using dosimetric and radiobiological models.Methods:This study selected 65 patients with cervical cancer who were treated with image-guided IC/ISBT. The afterloading therapy plans for these patients were optimized using GO, IPSA, and HIPO individually, with a prescription dose high-risk clinical target volume (HRCTV) D90 of 6 Gy. The non-parametric Friedman test and the non-parametric Wilcoxon rank test were employed to analyze the differences in duration, dose-volume parameters, and radiobiology between the three types of optimized plans. Results:Inverse planning optimization (IPSA: 46.53 s; HIPO: 98.36 s) took less time than GO (135.03 s). In terms of gross target volume (GTV) dose, the high-dose irradiation V150% (53.66%) was slightly higher in the HIPO-optimized plans, while the V200% (30.29%) was higher in the GO-optimized plans. The GO-optimized plans had a higher conformity index (CI; 0.91) than other plans, showing statistically significant differences. Compared with other plans, the HIPO-optimized plans showed the lowest doses of D1 cm 3 and D2 cm 3 at bladders and rectums and non-statistically significant doses at small intestines ( P > 0.05). In terms of the equivalent uniform biologically effective dose (EUBED) for HRCTV, the HIPO-optimized plans showed a higher value (12.35 Gy) than the GO-optimized plans (12.23 Gy) and the IPSA-optimized plans (12.13 Gy). Moreover, the EUBED at bladders was the lowest (2.38 Gy) in the GO-optimized plans, the EUBED at rectums was the lowest (3.74 Gy) in the HIPO-optimized plans, and the EUBED at small intestines was non-significantly different among the three types of optimized plans ( P = 0.055). There was no significant difference in the tumor control probability (TCP) predicted using the three types of optimized plans ( P > 0.05). The normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs) of bladders and rectums predicted using the HIPO-optimized plans were lower than those predicted using the GO- and IPSA-optimized plans( χ2 = 12.95-38.43, P < 0.01), and the NTCP of small intestines did not show significant differences ( P > 0.05). Conclusions:Among the three types of optimization algorithms, inverse optimization takes less time than GO. GO-optimized plans are more conformal than IPSA- and HIPO-optimized plans. HIPO-optimized plans can increase the biological coverage dose of the target volume and reduce the maximum physical/biological exposure and NTCP at bladders and rectums. Therefore, HIPO is recommended preferentially as an optimization algorithm for IC/ISBT for cervical cancer.
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Objective To explore the spatial epidemiological characteristics of mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, and to provide reference for the formulation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevention and control strategies according to local conditions. Methods The death data of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were obtained from the local death surveillance system of Pudong New Area. Crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death caused by COPD in each subdistricts and towns of Pudong New Area were calculated. The geographical information system (GIS) was used to plot the spatial distribution maps of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease death. The trend surface analysis and the spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to analyze the spatial distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease death. Results The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by COPD among residents in Pudong New Area between 2010 and 2020 were 58.40/100,000, 22.35/100,000, and 0.26%, respectively. The results of trend surface analysis showed that the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by COPD gradually increased from north to south. In the east-west direction, the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death showed an upward trend from west to east. The global autocorrelation analysis suggested that there existed a positive spatial autocorrelation for the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustering areas of COPD crude mortality, standardized mortality and premature mortality were all located in the rural areas of the southeast of Pudong New Area. Conclusion There are urban and rural differences in the mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among residents in Pudong New Area from 2010 to 2020. The residents living in rural southeast coast of Pudong New Area are more seriously affected by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and should be paid more attention.
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ObjectiveTo determine the trend in diabetes-related death and probability of premature mortality among residents in Yangpu District of Shanghai and provide evidence for the formulation of relevant intervention strategies. MethodsMortality and demographic data were collected among residents in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 2002 to 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted using chi-square test with SPSS 21.0 and Excel 2010. Joinpoint regression was used to determine annual percent change （APC）. The mortality was standardized by utilizing the world standard population in 2000. ResultsA total of 25 091 cases of diabetes-related deaths were reported in Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2002 to 2020. The average annual crude mortality of diabetes-related diseases was 122.10/105， which was 116.13/105 in males and 128.23/105 in females. The difference between males and females in crude mortality was statistically significant （P<0.05）. Moreover， primary causes of diabetes-related deaths were diabetes， cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases， and tumors. Among diabetic deaths， peripheral circulatory complications accounted for 50.79%， followed by renal complications （16.05%）. The crude mortality in males， females， and total of diabetes-related diseases showed an upward trend， while the standardized mortality remained stable with an upward trend in male and a downward trend in female. Furthermore， the crude mortality in males， females， and total of diabetes complicated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases showed an increasing trend. In contrast， both the standardized mortality in males and in total showed an increasing trend， while that in females remained stable. The overall crude mortality of diabetes was on the rise， which was increasing in males and stable in females. The overall standard mortality of diabetes was on the decline， which was increasing in males while declining in females. In addition， the probability of premature mortality caused by diabetes-related diseases， cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases complicated with diabetes， and diabetes decreased from 2002 to 2020 with no statistical significance. Males showed an upward trend while females showed a downward trend. ConclusionThe mortality of diabetes-related diseases， cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases complicated with diabetes， and diabetes among residents in Yangpu District of Shanghai is on the rise. Similarly， standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality in males for all three diseases are also on the rise. It warrants more attention to the health of male diabetes patients and targeted measures to reduce the disease burden.
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Background: Antipsychotic drugs are commonly used pharmacological agents, which have varied adverse reactions. There is a need to investigate the prevalence of these adverse reactions due to the implications for clinical practice and research. Studies on the prevalence of these adverse reactions are few, especially from Indian subcontinent. Aim and Objectives: The objectives of this study were as follows: (i) To investigate the drug emergent adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in patients who are on antipsychotic drugs and (ii) to study the severity of ADRs due to antipsychotic agents and association between the adverse reaction and the suspected drug. Materials and Methods: This is a prospective observational study, in which 99 patients out of 120 patients suffering with mental illness were enrolled. Base-line investigations such as CBP, ESR, serum creatinine, serum electrolytes, serum cholesterol, serum prolactin, and FBS (fasting blood sugar) were performed and the same were repeated at 1st month and 3rd month and checked for any abnormality. Any suspected ADRs were noted after 1 month and 3 months in patients after starting the treatment with antipsychotic drugs. The patients were assessed with semi-structured interview, the patient rated side effects scale (LUNSERS), and an adverse drug probability scale (Naranjo probability scale). The results were analyzed with SPSS software. The ADRs in patients were also compared between in-patients and out-patients. Results: The atypical drugs particularly risperidone and olanzapine were commonly prescribed for the patients, than typical antipsychotic drugs such as haloperidol. Out of the 99 patients, risperidone was prescribed for 56.6% of patients, olanzapine was prescribed for 40.4% patients, amisulpride was prescribed for 1% of patient, and haloperidol for 2% of patients. About 79% of the patients under study developed ADRs within a month and 21% developed after a month. These drugs were given twice-daily dosage regimen for 89.9% of the patients than once daily dosage regimen, which is 10.1%. Forty-one were in-patients and 58 patients were out-patients. Among the in-patients, risperidone drug was given for 28 (68.3%) patients, olanzapine was given for 11 (26.8%) patients, amisulpride for 1 (2.4%) patient, and haloperidol for 1 (2.4%) patients. The most common ADRs in in-patients was EPS (90.24%) with a statistically significant P < 0.0001. In out-patients, risperidone was prescribed for 28 (48.3%) patients, olanzapine was given for 29 (50%) patients, and haloperidol for 1 (1.7%) patient. The most common ADR among out-patients was sedation (82.75%) with P = 0.0001, which is statistically significant. The ADRs were “significant” according to LUNSERS overall score and are “probable” according to Naranjo’s probability assessment scale. Conclusion: The most common antipsychotic drugs used were risperidone and olanzapine. The common drug emergent adverse reactions were EPS and sedation when the drugs were prescribed twice-daily dosage regimen. The time taken for these ADRs to emerge is ?1 month. The ADRs are significant according to LUNSERS and probable due to suspected drug according to Naranjo’s probability assessment scale. In comparison between in-patients and out-patients, EPS was found more among in-patients and sedation in out-patients. Depending on the intensity of the ADRs, the antipsychotics drug dosage was reduced or drug changed or another was added to combat the ADRs.
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Introducción: La malaria es una enfermedad endémica en Colombia, cuyas características biológicas, fisiopatológicas y el impacto socioeconómico que genera la han posicionado como una enfermedad de interés en salud pública. Objetivo: Predecir el número de casos notificados de malaria para el segundo semestre del año 2020 en el departamento de Antioquia, a través de la aplicación de la teoría de la probabilidad y la caminata al azar. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional longitudinal retrospectivo. Se analizó la dinámica geométrica del comportamiento semestral de la epidemia de malaria en el departamento de Antioquia durante los años 2008-2020 con los datos del Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública, como una caminata al azar probabilística. En relación con los aumentos y disminuciones consecutivas semestrales, se determinó el número de infectados más probable para el segundo semestre del año 2020. Resultados: El valor de la predicción fue de 3433. Al ser comparado con los valores reportados por el Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública, se obtuvo un porcentaje de acierto del 95,4 %. Conclusiones: Al predecir con alta precisión el número de infectados para el segundo semestre del año 2020 en el departamento de Antioquia, se evidencia la potencialidad de la metodología para implementarse como una herramienta de vigilancia en salud pública y como un medio que sirva para apoyar la toma de decisiones en materia de políticas públicas.
Introduction: Malaria is an endemic disease in Colombia. Due to its biological and pathophysiological characteristics and socioeconomic impact, it is positioned as a disease of public health interest. Objective: To predict the number of reported cases of malaria for the second semester of 2020 in Antioquia department using the theory of probability and probabilistic random walk. Methods: A retrospective, longitudinal, observational study was conducted. The geometric dynamics of the biannual development of malaria epidemic in Antioquia department from 2008 to 2020 was analyzed using the data from the National Surveillance System in Public Health as a probabilistic random walk. Regarding the consecutive biannual reductions and increments, the most probable number of infected individuals was determined for the second semester of 2020. Results: The predictive value was 3433. When it was compared to the values reported by the National Surveillance System in Public Health, a 95.4% accuracy rate was obtained. Conclusions: By predicting with high accuracy the number of infected individuals for the second semester of 2020 in Antioquia department, it is evident the methodology potential as a public health surveillance tool and as a means to support public policy decision making.
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HumansABSTRACT
Background: Diabetes is a public health problem of colossal proportions. The National Family Health Survey 5 (2019–2020) has found high blood sugar levels among 13.5% of women and 15.6% of men in India. The high morbidity and mortality in diabetes mellitus are due to uncontrolled hyperglycemia resulting in micro- and macrovascular changes affecting multiple organs in the body. The objectives of this study were to estimate glycemic control and its determinants among type 2 diabetics in the Ernakulam district. Methods: A community-based cross?sectional study was conducted among 364 type 2 diabetics who had the disease for at least 5 years duration in the Ernakulam district of Kerala. Probability proportional to size cluster sampling technique was adopted. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and behavioral profiles. Participants’ HbA1c levels were assessed to determine glycemic control. Results: The proportion of people with good glycemic control was 21.4%. Determinants such as female gender adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 2.36, P = 0.005), body mass index >23 kg/m² (aOR = 2.71, P = 0.002), combined drug treatment with Oral Hypoglycaemic agents (OHA) and insulin (aOR = 3.76, P = 0.004), and poor compliance with medications (aOR = 1.93, P = 0.030) were found to be significantly associated with poor glycemic control. Conclusions: Poor compliance with medications and unhealthy lifestyle choices has resulted in a high proportion of diabetics with poor glycemic control in the district. Women are particularly more vulnerable to uncontrolled hyperglycemia than males. Type 2 diabetes mellitus people should be encouraged to maintain strict glycemic control, which is an important measure for secondary prevention of complications.
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Background: Multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) coronary angiography has become one of the hot spots in cardiovascular imaging technology. Many of the sex-based research have shown that women have different pathogenesis, clinical presentation and complication related to coronary artery disease (CAD) as compared to the males. The aim of this study investigated the relationship between gender and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in patients with chest discomfort with low and intermediate pretest probability of CAD who underwent Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and referrals by gender for subsequent invasive coronary angiography and revascularization. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 200 patients suspected to have coronary artery disease, negative or equivocal stress tests, with no prior known coronary artery disease (CAD), intermediate pretest probability for CAD according to the scoring method of (15-65 points), and Low likelihood for CAD (< 15 points). Patients were divided into two groups according to gender and were followed up. All patients underwent Full history taking, full clinical examination, routine laboratory investigation, resting and exercise ECG, echocardiography, CT coronary angiography and invasive Coronary angiography. Results: Patients with mild calcium score level were significantly higher in no CAD group than CAD group (p <0.001) and patients with high calcium score were significantly higher in CAD group than no CAD group (p <0.001). In univariate regression analysis age, typical chest pain, obesity, coronary Ca score, and hyperlipidemia are independent predictors for CAD in females. In multivariate regression analysis, age, typical chest pain, hypertension, and coronary Ca score are predictors for CAD in males. Coronary calcium score is a good predicator for CAD (AUC =0.901, 95% CI =0.851-0.938, p value <0.001). At cut off value > 101, it has 70.97% sensitivity, 90.79% specificity, 92.6% PPV, and 65.7% NPV. Moreover, it is a good predicator for CAD in females (AUC =0.894, 95% CI =0.823 – 0.944, p value <0.001). At cut off value > 101, it has 60.71% sensitivity, 91.67% specificity, 87.2% PPV, and 71.4% NPV. Conclusions: In patients with chest discomfort with low and intermediate pretest probability of CAD who underwent CCTA and subsequent invasive coronary angiography and revascularization, female patients had lower age, hypertension, pretest probability score, calcium score, atypical angina, nonanginal chest pain and obstructive CAD but had higher BMI, typical angina than males’ group. In females, coronary calcium score is a good predicator for CAD. When its level exceeds 100, it has 60.71% sensitivity and 91.67% specificity. In addition, it was found that in females typical chest pain and coronary Ca score are predictors for CAD and in males, age, typical chest pain, hypertension, and coronary Ca score are predictors for CAD.
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Abstract Objectives: although mortality and perinatal asphyxia in newborns have been considerably reduced, there are still deficiencies in screening and diagnosis methods for intrapartum fetal well being that aim to detect its early alterations. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to apply a methodology based on probability and entropy and confirm its capacity to detect normal and abnormal fetal cardiac dynamics from 20-minute cardiotocographic tracings. Methods: 80 cardiotocographic tracings of pregnant women in the last trimester were collected, of which the minimum and maximum fetal heart rate were evaluated every 10 seconds, as well as its repetitions along with their probability and the diagnostic S/k ratio. Finally, the statistical analysis was carried out to establish the diagnostic capacity of the method concerning the clinical evaluation and interpretation of the cardiotocographic tracing, taken as the Gold Standard. Results: it was confirmed that S/k ratio values differentiated normal from abnormal fetal cardiac dynamics with sensitivity and specificity values of 100% and a Kappa coefficient of 1. Conclusion: the applicability of a diagnostic mathematical method of cardiotocography was confirmed, which suggests its implementation in the clinical context to detect alterations in fetal well-being in 20 minutes.
Resumo Objetivos: aunque se ha logrado reducir considerablemente la mortalidad y asfixia perinatal en neonatos, aún hay deficiencias en los métodos de tamizaje y diagnóstico del bienestar fetal intraparto que detecten sus alteraciones tempranas. Por lo anterior, el propósito de esta investigación fue aplicar una metodología basada en la probabilidad y la entropía y confirmar su capacidad para diagnosticar la dinámica cardíaca fetal normal de la anormal a partir de trazados cardiotocográficos de 20 minutos. Métodos: se recolectaron 80 trazados cardiotocográficos de gestantes en el último trimestre, de los cuales se evaluaron frecuencia cardíaca fetal mínima y máxima cada 10 segundos al igual que sus repeticiones, su probabilidad y la proporción S/k diagnóstica. Finalmente, se realizó un análisis estadístico para establecer la capacidad diagnóstica del método con respecto a la interpretación el trazado cardiotocográfico y la evaluación clínica, tomadas como Gold Standard. Resultados: se confirmó que los valores de la proporción S/k diferenciaron las dinámicas cardíacas fetales normales de las anormales con valores de sensibilidad y especificidad del 100% y un coeficiente Kappa de 1. Conclusión: se confirmó la aplicabilidad de un método matemático diagnóstico de la cardiotocografía, lo cual sugiere que su implementación en la clínica para detectar alteraciones del bienestar fetal en 20 minutos.
Subject(s)
Humans , Female , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Trimester, Third , Heart Rate, Fetal , Cardiotocography/methods , Neonatal Screening , Perinatal Care , EntropyABSTRACT
Abstract Objectives: Multiple methodologies based on probability theory have been developed to establish predictions of dengue, malaria, HIV, obesity epidemics, among others. This research aimed to develop a new method for predicting the dynamics of the number of COVID-19 cases for China, Belgium, and South Korea based on the probability theory that allows the evaluation and comparison of their increment. Material and methods: Probability ranges of the number of COVID-19 cases were established, which were assigned to each of the daily number of COVID-19 cases reported by China, Belgium, and South Korea that were evaluated during 74, 50, and 50 days respectively. The frequency and probability of each daily range for each country was calculated. Their total probability and the probability of the dynamics in intervals of 8 consecutive days were calculated, and the values between countries were compared to evaluate their differences. Results: Probability values of 1.21E-30, 2.03E-22, and 3.15E-12 were established for China, Belgium, and South Korea, which allows the quantitative differentiation of the characteristics of their dynamics. The probability differences of the 8-day subspaces ranged from 0.003 to 1, allowing the temporal changes in the dynamics to be evaluated. Conclusion: The ranges established for the evaluation of the number of COVID-19 cases allow to differentiate the behavior of epidemics between countries and to stratify the severity of expansion. Highlighting an underlying mathematical order for this phenomenon permitted quantitatively predict its spatiotemporal dynamic and indirectly, the efficacy of public health politics implemented for each country.
Resumen Objetivos: Se han desarrollado múltiples metodologías basadas en la teoría de la probabilidad para establecer predicciones de epidemias de dengue, malaria, VIH, obesidad, entre otras. Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo desarrollar un nuevo método de predicción de la dinámica del número de casos de COVID-19 para China, Bélgica y Corea del Sur, basado en la teoría de la probabilidad que permite evaluar y comparar su crecimiento. Materiales y métodos: Se establecieron rangos de probabilidad del número de casos de COVID-19, los cuales fueron asignados a cada uno de los valores diarios del número de casos de COVID-19 reportados por China Bélgica y Corea del Sur evaluados durante 74, 50 y 50 días, respectivamente. Se calculó la frecuencia y probabilidad de cada rango diario para cada país. Se calculó su probabilidad total y la probabilidad de la dinámica en intervalos de 8 días consecutivos y se compararon los valores entre países para evaluar sus diferencias. Resultados: se establecieron valores de probabilidad de 1.21E-30, 2.03E-22 y 3.15E-12 para China, Bélgica y Corea del Sur, lo que permite diferenciar cuantitativamente las características de su dinámica. Las diferencias de probabilidad de los subespacios de 8 días variaron de 0,003 a 1, lo que permitió evaluar los cambios temporales en la dinámica. Conclusión: los rangos establecidos para la evaluación del número de casos de COVID-19 permiten diferenciar el comportamiento de las epidemias entre países y estratificar la severidad de la expansión, destacando un orden matemático subyacente para este fenómeno que permite predecir cuantitativamente su dinámica espacio-temporal y indirectamente, la eficacia de las políticas de salud pública implementadas para cada país.
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Resumen Introducción: la infección por COVID 19 corresponde actualmente al evento infeccioso con mayor impacto en salud púbica a nivel mundial, en Colombia, al 30 de abril de 2020 se registraron 6465 casos acumulados, 360 defunciones y 2186 casos recuperados, dado el aumento en los casos reportados mediante los sistemas de vigilancia epidemiológica se precisa de herramientas que faciliten el diagnóstico oportuno y la predicción en el comportamiento de los casos a nivel nacional. Objetivos: proponer un modelo estadístico que permita predecir la probabilidad de cursar con diagnóstico de COVID-19 en la población atendida por sospecha de infección por el mismo en una institución de tercer nivel del municipio de Pereira- Risaralda entre marzo y abril de 2020. Materiales y métodos: se presenta un estudio descriptivo de corte trasversal en el cual se analizaron 82 casos, se realizó un modelo predictivo basado en compuertas lógicas AND y OR, y análisis por estadística descriptiva e inferencial. Resultados: de los 82 registros analizados se encontró una relación hombre: mujer de 1:2; el 6% de los pacientes tuvo alta probabilidad para diagnóstico de COVID 19, el 20% tuvo probabilidad intermedia y el 72% registró baja probabilidad para COVID19, la concordancia del modelo con los resultados de las pruebas fue inferior a 0,5. Conclusiones: el modelo estadístico planteado fue insuficiente para lograr la predicción de la totalidad de los casos de COVID-19 basados en el perfil de riego de la población, se precisan nuevas investigaciones con tamaños de muestra superiores, diseños y análisis distintos. MÉD.UIS.2022;35(1): 57-69.
Abstract Introduction: COVID 19 infection currently corresponds to the infectious event with the greatest impact on public health worldwide, in Colombia, as of April 30, 2020, 6465 accumulated cases, 360 deaths and 2186 recovered cases were registered, given the increase in cases reported through epidemiological surveillance systems, tools are needed to facilitate timely diagnosis and prediction in the behavior of cases at the national level. Objectives: to propose a statistical model that allows predicting the probability of a diagnosis of COVID-19 in the population treated for suspected coronavirus infection in a third-level institution in the population of Pereira-Risaralda between March and April 2020. Materials and methods: a descriptive cross-sectional study is presented, in which 82 cases were analyzed, a predictive model based on AND and OR logic gates, analyzes by descriptive and inferential statistics were performed. Results: of the 82 records analyzed, a male: female ratio of 1: 2 was found; 6% of the patients had a high probability for the diagnosis of COVID 19, 20% had an intermediate probability and 72% had a low probability for COVID19, the agreement of the model with the test results was less than 0.5. Conclusions: the proposed statistical model was insufficient to achieve the prediction of all the cases of COVID-19 based on the irrigation profile of the population. New investigations are required with larger sample sizes associated with longitudinal designs and combined statistical analyzes that allow to refine the proposed model. MÉD.UIS.2022;35(1): 57-69.
Subject(s)
Humans , Coronavirus Infections , Probability Theory , Signs and Symptoms , Communicable Diseases , Bayes Theorem , ColombiaABSTRACT
Background The association between serum nickel (Ni) and oral cancer incidence is unclear and most of the previous studies were observational studies that did not control for confounding factors between groups. Objective To assess the correlation of serum Ni with oral cancer incidence based on propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Methods A cohort of 456 newly diagnosed oral cancer patients was recruited from the First Hospital of Fujian Medical University during November 2011 to May 2019, and residents ordered their health check-up in hospitals or local community health centers over the same period were selected as a control group, which included a total of 1410 participants. Serum Ni was evaluated by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Case-control pairs were selected using a 1:1 PSM (caliper value of 0.02), and the study subjects in the case group and control group were weighted for subsequent analysis by IPTW. The general characteristics of the study subjects were tested for equilibrium before and after matching by chi-square test and standardized mean difference (SMD). This was followed by exploring the potential nonlinear dose-response relationship between serum Ni and oral cancer using restricted cubic splines as well as analyzing the association between serum Ni and oral cancer incidence by conditional logistic regression and weighted logistic regression. Results After controlling for between-group covariates by PSM and IPTW, the dose-response curves demonstrated that the risk of developing oral cancer tended to decline and then increase with the increasing serum Ni level. The outcome of the analysis using PSM demonstrated that as compared to the control group, the risk of developing oral cancer in the 0.09-16.80 μg·L−1 serum Ni group was negatively correlated with serum Ni level (OR=0.36, 95%CI: 0.24-0.54), whereas the risk of developing oral cancer in the >16.80 μg·L−1 serum Ni group was positively correlated with serum Ni level (OR=5.43, 95%CI: 2.76-10.68). After applying IPTW, a negative association was found between the risk of oral cancer and serum Ni concentration within a serum Ni window ranging from 0.09 to 20.55 μg·L−1 (OR=0.39, 95%CI: 0.29-0.52), while a positive association with an OR and 95%CI of 5.54 (3.62-8.49) for the Ni concentration > 20.55 μg·L−1. Conclusion In this study, a J-shaped relationship between serum Ni concentration and the risk of developing oral cancer is found, which shows that high serum Ni concentration (>20.55 μg·L−1) may be a risk factor for oral cancer.
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The purpose of the paper was to introduce how to reasonably carry out multiple Logistic regression analysis combined with the average treatment effect analysis. Firstly， it introduced 4 basic concepts related to the average treatment effect analysis. Secondly， it presented the core contents in the average treatment effect analysis， that was， six estimation methods. Thirdly， through a hypothetical drug clinical trial example， it gave the whole process of how to use SAS software for the analysis. The contests were as follows： ① the traditional multiple Logistic regression model was used for the analysis； ② the propensity score model was used to calculate the inverse probability weights； ③ six estimation methods were used to estimate the potential outcome mean and the average treatment effect.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the characteristics of death and premature death of 4 major chronic diseases （cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases， malignant tumors， chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes） in Taizhou City from 2011 to 2018，and provide data basis for the government to formulate chronic disease prevention planning. MethodsThe death data of household registration residents in Taizhou City from 2011 to 2018 were derived from the Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System in Zhejiang Province. The death toll ratio of chronic diseases， the mortality rate of chronic diseases， the probability of premature death of chronic diseases were analyzed. The standardization rate was calculated six times in 2010. Population composition of the census. The Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2 software was used for calculating annual percent change （APC） and its statistical test results. ResultsFrom 2011 to 2018， there were 231 724 chronic disease deaths in Taizhou City， with a mortality rate of 486.52/105 and a standardized mortality rate of 381.55/105. The proportion of chronic disease deaths to total deaths was 79.89%， of which males were higher than females and rural areas were higher than urban areas.From 2011 to 2018， the standardized mortality and early death probability of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases， malignant tumors and chronic respiratory diseases in Taizhou showed a downward trend （P<0.05）， the standardized mortality of diabetes （P=0.46） and the early death probability （P=0.22） did not decline， and the mortality of all age groups of the above four types of chronic diseases in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas. The mortality of the four types of chronic diseases from high to low are cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases， malignant tumors， chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes， and the mortality tends to increase with age. From 2011 to 2018， the probability of premature death from four types of chronic diseases in Taizhou City showed a downward trend， from 13.49% in 2011 to 10.49% in 2018， with an average annual decrease of 2.97%. The difference was statistically significant （t=‒5.83，P<0.05）. ConclusionChronic disease death is the main cause of death in Taizhou City. In order to reduce the mortality rate of chronic diseases， effective prevention and control measures for chronic diseases should be carried out， especially the prevention and control of diabetes and male chronic diseases.